I-Shanghai njengommeleli wokuqalisa kabusha kokukhiqizwa kabusha, ake ithemba livuselelwe, kodwa phambi kwemboni yensimbi yizinyanga ezine zokuqala zedatha ye-melancholy.
Kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya ku-April 2022, ukukhiqizwa kwensimbi engahluziwe kazwelonke kwehle ngo-10.3% unyaka nonyaka, ukukhiqizwa kwensimbi yezingulube kwehla ngo-9.4% unyaka nonyaka kanye nokukhiqizwa kwensimbi kwehle ngo-5.9% unyaka nonyaka.Phakathi kwabo, ngo-Ephreli, ukukhishwa kwensimbi engcolile kazwelonke kwehle ngo-5.2% unyaka nonyaka, ukukhiqizwa kwensimbi yengulube kwakuyisicaba futhi ukukhishwa kwensimbi kwehla ngo-5.8% unyaka nonyaka.
Khonamanjalo, ezinyangeni ezine zokuqala zika-2022, izinga lokukhula lokutshalwa kwezimali kwezakhiwo lehle ngo-2.7%, ukutshalwa kwezimali kwingqalasizinda kukhule ngo-6.5% unyaka nonyaka, kanye nokutshalwa kwezimali kwezokukhiqiza kukhule ngo-12.2% unyaka nonyaka.Lezi yizindawo ezintathu ezisondelene kakhulu “nesidingo sensimbi”, emakethe yezindawo ezithengiswayo kanye nezinga lokukhula kokukhiqiza kulindeleke ukuthi libe nesimo sengqondo sokungabaza, ingqalasizinda ibethelwe ethembeni elikhulu.
U-6.5%, kubukeka sengathi izinga lokukhula kwengqalasizinda alilibi, kodwa ngokwenhlolokhono ye-Economic Observer, ingqalasizinda njengamanje ikhombisa ukuntuleka kwamandla okudonsa asetshenziswayo.Isibonelo, engxoxweni nezinkampani zemishini yokwakha, ukuthi, okwamanje, izikweletu zohulumeni basekhaya, kanye nezinkokhelo zobunjiniyela ezikhuphukayo zivame kakhulu, okwenza ukutshalwa kwezimali kungqalasizinda, noma ngabe kukhulu kakhulu, kodwa futhi. kudingeka kusetshenziswe ingxenye enkulu ukugcwalisa isikweleti sephrojekthi yangaphambilini, ukusebenza kudatha, okungukuthi, ukukhushulwa kokutshalwa kwezimali kwingqalasizinda kukhulu kakhulu, kodwa ukudonsa kwangempela kwengqalasizinda kulinganiselwe.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, ezinye amafemu Brokerage bakholelwa ukuthi izinga lokukhula kwengqalasizinda ngoJanuwari-April, kodwa futhi abakwazi indiva izici eziningana, iphuzu lokuqala yi-inflation factor, ikota yokuqala PPI cumulative unyaka nonyaka ukukhula 8.7%, okusho ukuthi. ukuthi inani langempela lokukhula kwenani lokutshalwa kwezimali lingase lingabi phezulu kakhulu.Isibonelo, njengezinsiza eziyinhloko zokwakhiwa komgwaqo, ukusetshenziswa kwetiyela ngekota yokuqala kwehle ngo-24.2% unyaka nonyaka, kuyilapho amanani enyuka ngo-22.7% unyaka nonyaka.Iphuzu lesibili isici sesizini, inani lokutshalwa kwezimali kwingqalasizinda kwikota yokuqala njengengxenye yonyaka ngokuvamile liphansi (ngokuvamile lingabi ngaphezu kuka-15%), okusho ukuthi izinga lokukhula liwukushintshashintsha okukhulu uma kuqhathaniswa.Ukwengeza, kusukela emthonjeni wezimali, ukusetshenziswa kwezimali ngaphambili namandla esikweletu esikhethekile kuwukhiye, okufaka isandla cishe kukho konke ukukhuphuka konyaka nonyaka kwezimali zengqalasizinda.
Ingqalasizinda, izindlu, ukukhiqiza, kungasekela "isidingo sensimbi" ngo-2022?Ngomhla ka-June 1, iphephandaba laxoxisana nomcwaningi wenethiwekhi yensimbi uZeng Liang.
Isibukeli Sezomnotho: Ngokubona kwakho, ingabe imakethe yensimbi isiqalile isidingo sokuqalisa kabusha umsebenzi nokukhiqiza ngemva komjikelezo wamanje wobhubhane?
Ngokusho kwedatha elandelwa yinethiwekhi yensimbi, ngokuthuthuka okusobala kwalolu bhubhane ezweni lonke, inkomba ye-boom yemboni yensimbi yasekhaya iphinde yaqina, futhi ukusebenza kochungechunge lwezimboni zensimbi kuye kwalulama.
Ngokuqondile, mayelana nokukhiqizwa kwensimbi, kusukela ngoMeyi 25, izinga lokuqala lemishini yokushisa i-arc kagesi ezimele yasekhaya elandelwa yi-Steel Network yayingu-66.67%, ikhuphuke ngamaphesenti angu-3.03 inyanga nenyanga;izinga lokuqala kwezigayo zesithando somlilo lalingu-77%, likhuphuke ngamaphesenti angu-0.96 ngamaphuzu inyanga nenyanga.Ngokombono wonyaka nonyaka, isithando somlilo se-arc esifuywayo kanye nezigayo zensimbi eziqhumayo ziqale umsebenzi zehle ngamaphesenti angu-15.15 namaphesenti angu-2.56 ngokulandelana, ikakhulukazi ngenxa yenzuzo ephansi yokukhiqiza insimbi, ethinte umdlandla wokukhiqiza kwabanye. izigayo zensimbi.Kusukela ohlangothini lokujikeleza kwensimbi, ngoMeyi 27, inani eliphelele lesitimu esithwalayo esithuthwa izibalo ze-Fat Cat Logistics lenyuke ngo-2.07% isonto ngalinye, okubonisa ukuthi ukujikeleza kwensimbi kwaqala ukuthuthuka ngokusimama kancane kancane kwezinto zokuhamba.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, kusukela ohlangothini lwesidingo sensimbi, ngomthelela jikelele walolu bhubhane embonini yensimbi ngoMeyi kuthanda ukuba buthaka, ukululama kancane kancane kwezinto zokuhamba nezokuthutha, amabhizinisi ensimbi esibulalayo aqala kabusha umsebenzi nokukhiqiza, imboni yensimbi ephansi yomfula iyakhula. Inkomba ikhuphuke kancane inyanga nenyanga.Ngokwemininingwane yocwaningo lwensimbi, inkomba ye-PMI eyinhlanganisela yemboni yensimbi ezansi nomfula yayingama-49.02% ngoMeyi 2022, ikhuphuke ngamaphesenti angu-0.19 inyanga nenyanga.
I-Economic Observer: Ngezinga lokukhula kwengqalasizinda kaJanuwari-April “lombala”, ngokuqaphela kwakho kanjani?
Nakuba ukutshalwa kwezimali kwengqalasizinda kaJanuwari-April kuye kwazuza izinga elihle lokukhula, kodwa umbono wamanje wengqalasizinda yesidingo sensimbi empeleni awulungile kakhulu, sikholelwa ukuthi ngaphezu kwalesi "sikweletu esisha" esishiwo ngenhla, izici zokwehla kwamandla emali kanye nesisekelo esiphansi. kwekota yokuqala, kunezizathu eziningana zalokhu okulandelayo.
Omunye, nakuba ingxenye yokuqala yengqalasizinda ukusekela phansi inqubomgomo ukuzinzisa ukukhula liye lenyuka kakhulu, kuhlanganise ngokusesilinganisweni ngaphambi utshalomali ingqalasizinda, isikweletu esikhethekile Ukukhishwa phambi, isikweletu esikhethekile sendawo ukwandisa ubukhulu isivinini ukukhishwa, njll ., kodwa kusukela kunqubomgomo kuya ezikhwameni ezikhona, bese kuya ekwakhiweni komthwalo womsebenzi wephrojekthi phansi, ngokuvamile zidinga izinyanga ezingu-6-9 zomjikelezo wokuqhuba, ngakho-ke, sikholelwa ukuthi utshalomali lwengqalasizinda ekuqaleni. isigamu sonyaka kungase kudingeke Ingxenye yesibili yonyaka ukwakha ngokugcwele umsebenzi ngokomzimba, futhi ngaleyo ndlela ukwakha isidingo steel.
Okwesibili, lolu bhubhane lwabhebhetheka ezindaweni eziningi engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka, lwathinta isikhathi eside, okuholele ekwehleni okukhulu kwenqubekelaphambili yokwakhiwa kwemisebenzi eminingi yengqalasizinda, okwenza inkathi yokwakhiwa kwengqalasizinda yalo nyaka isuswe eminyakeni edlule.
Okwesithathu, uhlaka lotshalomali lwengqalasizinda yalo nyaka luhlukene.Kusukela ekuqaleni kukaMasingana kuya kuMbasa, ukukhiqizwa kukagesi, ukushisa, igesi namanzi kanye nokutshalwa kwezimali embonini yokuhlinzeka ngempahla kukhule ngo-13.0%, ukutshalwa kwezimali embonini yokuphatha amanzi kanye nokuphathwa kwezakhiwo zomphakathi kukhuphuke ngo-12.0% no-7.1%, imboni yezokuthutha emigwaqeni kanye nemboni yezokuthutha ngojantshi. phezulu ngo-0.4% naphansi ngo-7.0%.Njengoba kungase kubonakale, ukusebenza kwengqalasizinda evamile kuncane kakhulu, lokhu kwehlukana onyakeni noma okusazoqhubeka, nakho kuzoletha izinguquko esidingweni sensimbi.Esimeni sokubekwa kwamasu kwengqalasizinda yesimanje kulo lonke ibhodi, ingqalasizinda entsha efana nenethiwekhi yezibalo, isikhungo sedatha, ukuhlelwa kwezinto ezihlakaniphile, njll. okungabaliwe ngakho kungase kuzuze ukukhula okuphezulu kokutshalwa kwezimali, kodwa ingqalasizinda entsha ayibonakali ngokufunwa kwensimbi. .
Umbukeli Wezomnotho: Uma "umbala" wengqalasizinda ngoJanuwari-April ungenele, okulandelayo, ukuthi ingqalasizinda ekhona izoba nokuthuthuka okwengeziwe?
Ntambama yangomhla zingama-30 kuNhlaba, uMnyango Wezezimali wacela ukusheshisa ukukhishwa nokusetshenziswa kwamabhondi akhethekile kahulumeni wasekhaya nokwandisa ububanzi bokusekelwa, futhi ulwele ukukhuthaza ukukhula okuzinzile kanye nokutshalwa kwezimali okuzinzile.Sekukonke, inqubekelaphambili yokusetshenziswa kwamabhondi akhethekile akhishwe emhlabeni wonke kangcono.Kusukela mhla zingama-27 kuNhlaba, sekukhishwe isamba esingu-1.85 trillion yuan wamabhondi akhethekile amasha, okuwukunyuka kwama-yuan ayizigidigidi eziyi-1.36 esikhathini esifanayo ngonyaka odlule, okubalelwa ku-54% womkhawulo okhishiwe.Futhi uMnyango Wezezimali uthe iminyango yezezimali yesifundazwe kufanele ilungise uhlelo lokukhishwa kwebhondi eliyisipesheli, ikhethe ngokufanelekile isikhathi sokukhishwa, isheshise inqubekelaphambili yokusebenzisa imali, ukuze kuqinisekiswe ukuthi amabhondi akhethekile amasha kulo nyaka ekupheleni kukaJuni akhishwe ngokuyisisekelo, futhi ilwele ukuba ngokuyisisekelo isetshenziswa ekupheleni kuka-August.
Ngokombono wesidingo sensimbi yengqalasizinda, sikholwa wukuthi njengoba uJuni kuya engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka, ukufika kancane kancane kwezimali zokwakhiwa kwemiklamo yengqalasizinda ezweni lonke, ingqalasizinda ingase idonswe phansi ngemva kokuba lolu bhubhane selulawuleke ngempumelelo. ukulungisa inqubekelaphambili, ngakho-ke silindele ukuthi ingxenye yesibili yonyaka isazoba nokukhululwa kwemiklamo yengqalasizinda ukuze ihlangabezane nesidingo, silindele ukuthi ngo-2022 ingqalasizinda yensimbi kulindeleke ukuthi ikhule.Ngokwemodeli yokufunwa kwensimbi elinganiswa yi-Find Steel, ukunyuka konyaka nonyaka kwesidingo sensimbi yengqalasizinda ngo-2022 kungase kube ku-4% -7%.
I-Economic Observer: Ngaphezu kwengqalasizinda, izindlu ezithengiswayo zingenye indawo esetshenziswa kakhulu insimbi.Ukwehla okungu-2.7% unyaka nonyaka ekukhuleni kokutshalwa kwezindlu kusuka ngoJanuwari kuya ku-Ephreli, kodwa ohulumeni basekhaya benza konke okusemandleni abo ukuvuselela imakethe yezindlu.Ucabangani ngokudonsa kwemakethe yezindlu “ekudingweni kwensimbi” kulo nyaka?
Nakuba inqubomgomo yokulawulwa kwezakhiwo iqhubeka nokukhululeka, izikweletu eziqinile nazo zaphenduka zaba lula, kodwa manje ukudluliswa kwenqubomgomo ngendima yezindlu ezithengiswayo akubonakali kakhulu.
Ngokombono wokuthengiswa kwezindlu ezithengiswayo, indawo yokuthengisa izindlu zikaJanuwari-Ephreli yehle ngo-20.9% unyaka nonyaka, ukwakhiwa kwezindlu ezintsha kanye nendawo yokuqedwa kwehle ngo-26.3% no-11.9%, indawo yokwakha izindlu ngokuyisisekelo yayiyisicaba unyaka wonke. -ngonyaka, ukusebenza kukonke kusenzima ukusho ukuthi kunethemba.Futhi-ke kusukela esimweni sokutholwa komhlaba ngendawo, ngenxa yokuthengiswa kwezindlu kanye nokwakhiwa kwezindlu namanje ababoni ukuthuthukiswa, abathuthukisi bezindlu ezithengiswayo bazimisele ukuthatha umhlaba ompofu, izifundazwe ezingu-31 namadolobha ama-premium omhlaba awela kakhulu unyaka nonyaka, ngoJanuwari-April. Indawo yokuthengwa kwezindlu nomhlaba yehle kakhulu ngama-46.5% unyaka nonyaka.Ekugcineni kusukela esimweni sensimbi yezindlu, ngoba i-2022 January-April ukuthengiswa kwezindlu, ukwakhiwa okusha, ukutholwa komhlaba jikelele kuyaqhubeka nokuncipha kakhulu, silindele ukuthi isidingo esiphelele sensimbi yezindlu ngo-2022 sizoqhubeka sisendleleni ephansi.Ngokusho kwezinkomba eziyinhloko zokuthuthukiswa kwezakhiwo, isidingo sensimbi ye-real estate ngo-2022 singase sehle ngo-2% -5% unyaka nonyaka.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Jun-08-2022